IPO India Information (BSE / NSE)

Showing posts with label Technical Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Technical Analysis. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Draw candle stick on Excel

Here in this Video I have shown that it is possible to draw candle stick charts on Excel


How to Calculate Beta of a stock?

Here in this video I have shown how to calculate a beta of the stock using excel and log return.





Click here to view the calculation

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Renuka Sugars: A view

Renuka Sugars
India is a handsome consumer of sugar nearly 23 million tons annually. Recently WTO’s stand on export subsidy of raw sugar and Indian’s stand on import of sugar had bought Indian sugar companies in demand.  

"There was an import parity but mills were not signing deals, expecting revision in the import duty. At 25 percent duty, imports are not viable," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.  As per times of India.

From last few days we are able to see upside movement and the stock is near to the downtrend line. If there is a breakout the stock might show the reversal and currently MACD have shown a positive crossover. And RSI is showing bullish signs.


If the stock fail to give a positive breakout it have a support at 14.58. currently the stock is near to its low. 

Sunday, June 22, 2014

Gold Rush is Back?

Iraq is now a hottest topic to be spoken in Financial Market. Every country now fear the oil risk which will affect the CAD and boost us inflation. It is always seen that when inflation rise, it also boost gold price as most of the investor think gold to be the safe heaven in a economic crisis thus having a positive correlation between crude oil price and gold price

Every nation is looking at the worst case senior of Iraq. As there is no help/aid form Uncle Sam nor any dominant countries interested to involve in the war, thus making Iraq indulge alone on its own.  Britain is proactive rising interest rate suspecting the oil risk and inflation. For any country the worst case scenario can be a rise in underling crude oil price up-to 10-20%. And this can be seen for next 3-6 months.   

Technical Analysis on Gold
Compared to silver, gold haven not shown any bullish indication as such; except an doji formed on last trading day. The previous pattern seen in gold was a descending triangle pattern and thus gave a indication that the gold rush so called is going to end. but the Iraq was gave a new twist and turn in the price pattern. As per now there is high chance that the gold can make a turn around and stay above 28K. Still 31K is a good resistance. This Iraq crisis will have a short term implication on crude as well as old. Few Indian Jewelry are in a bad condition and this rise in gold price will also affect them. 

Fig1

Fig 2

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Technical Analysis on Request:S&P CNX Nifty

It is been a massive change in Market dynamics after a terrorist organisation i.e ISIS had captured cities of Iraq. We have seen this implication on Capital, Forex and Commodity. There are few important things we have to understand regarding Iraq, that  is the country is a dominant exporter of oil in OPEC countries and an 2nd largest exporter of oil to the world and hold around 10% of world oil reserve.

Crux of the issue
The recent terror unrest caused in Iraq is directly implicating on world crude oil and that is causing a domino effect on all stocks and commodities all over the world. 

Apart this, we have report saying ISIS are targeting major oil refineries and had hit the countries one of the biggest oil refinery  which supply countries quarter of the oil Demand. 

All the above points mentioned are systematic risk and they are unavoidable and cannot be controlled by a individual. If there is a continuous rise in crude price, it will have a  negative effect as the rise in CAD,  falling rupee and high inflation are unhealthy for the Capital Markets/ Nifty. 

Market Bullish Triggers
Apart Monsoon and Budget result are the most expected result which will trigger a rally. 

 Technical View:
We are clearly able to see that RSI had given a bearish signal and MACD had also given a Bearish crossover see fig 1. Yesterday was a bearish candlestick. Till now the direction is not clear and we still need conformation of today's market. If today is bullish then market we will see a small rally probably making a higher high. If today turns to be a bearish day then market will find a support as  given in fig 2. 

Fig 1
Fig 2

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Technical Analysis on Request: Aurobindo Pharma

No one are bearish on  Aurobindo Pharma. But, technically I am able to see a rising wedge in this stock along with it. I am also able to see a bearish divergence in this stock


 The stock will be bearish after an bearish breakout in the trend

Technical Analysis on Request: Reliance, Why trader are bullish on Reliance?

From last few days Reliance is a buzz in the mouth of every investor. In my last article I had only given my views on Reliance. Today, I will let everyone know why traders are bullish on Reliance?.
Click here to read my last article 

 As per the current scenario the stock has given a bearish breakout and the stock has started correcting as you can see in the chart below



 "Inside Funda"
From last April 1st 2014 both Relaince and 13 Urea companies have failed to settle the price of natural gas supply rate and the issue had knocked the door of our oil minister Veerappa Moily. And the issue of keeping gas price below half of the global price is the main funda behind. So, Moily Had given a press relies saying

"When the proposal came to me, I rightly ordered that after the model code of conduct is lifted, (the) price may be announced for the quarter July-September and also for the quarter April-June, as per the approved guidelines by the cabinet,"- by Mr Moily 

What is the problem?

RIL and urea companies failed to settle the key terms of gas supply from 1 April on expiry of the five-year contracts that priced gas from the eastern offshore KG-D6 fields at $4.205 per million British thermal unit (mBtu). While RIL agreed to continue supplies in the interim period, the dispute pertained to the rate at which consumers should provide payment guarantees—the expired price or $8.34, which would have been applicable from 1 April had the Election Commission not postponed implementation of the Rangarajan Committee formula till completion of the general election.

"Moily's Game Play"

Reliance and Mr.Moily is are under a pressure of Election and Moily had informed that he will implement the price with a special formula
But, India's main opposition "Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), widely expected to win the most seats in the election and oust Moily's Congress party-led government, has said it would review the gas pricing formula if elected. " (as per a National Newspaper)

Conclusion: More than Technicals, I trust to keep a keen eye on News and information because that will drive this stock.

Source: livemint.com, Economic Times, NDTV 

Monday, April 28, 2014

Technical Analysis on Reliance Industries PART-2

As per now, we have seen a bearish breakout in the trend. It was obvious as there was a negative reversal building up in this stock. As the stock was between 840-925 for a long time. As per my analysis, the stock is healthy until the long moving average are giving bullish signal.  

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Technical Analysis on SBIN (State Bank of India)

I m looking SBI for a correction. The stocks is at its resistance and if the trend line gets broken the stock will drop at its support 1837. 

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Idea Cellular: continuation of downtrend (Technical Analysis on request)

For a few days from now the Idea  Cellular was making a bearish divergence on RSI and today it has given a downside breakout. which will lead the stock price to 125 or 101 within next few months. Here in the picture below we can see that the stock has given a downside breakout for the divergence

The possible supports for Idea

When we see at larger picture of Idea cellular we  can see that the stock has given a breakout(Downside/ Bearish) and failed to regain the bullish trend. Thus leading the stock into downtrend. Most of all major moving average namely 50DMA, 100DMA, 200DMA have given a negative crossover which is now making this stock a unfavorable piece of stock.  

Friday, January 3, 2014

Trading Sintex Ind's Ascending Triangle

As per the observation the stock had performed well in market. From last September 2013, now the stock is giving clear indication of a continuation and the stock price is expected to move up to 43/52 which are the next potential resistance.



The RSI is above 70 and making a bearish divergence thus forming the stock as a risky trade and can be advised to traders with quick entry and exit strategy. 

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

How to play with FMCG this year?

Since the news of Stake rise by Anglo-Dutch company Unileaver  PLC is ready to pump some +19K crores which is roughly around 67%. The FMCG market had a hard time; slowdown, high cost, profit margin, rupee depreciation, had affected almost all FMCG stocks. We have seen a consolidation of HUL stock from last June-July even FMCG stock have seen consolidation from September 2013.

FMCG CNX Analysis
 Currently CNX FMCG is just below 200DMA and trend-line is standing as a support. There is a possibility we may see a reversal. Stake rise is not only a problem with HUL, many foreign companies are rising stake in major FMCG companies like Pepsico, GSK and few  in other subsidiaries. It was basically a result of 
SEBI’s and RBI’s change of rules in minimum public shareholdings.

FMCG CNX had formed a Symmetrical triangle now; It had not given any directional breakout.

Analysis on HUL
The Stake rise news had created a fluctuation thus forming a Descending Triangle pattern, which had also given a negative breakout.  Along with it we are also seeing a divergence now, and forming a reversal pattern.


The stock is not an attractive stocks for analyst and many find ITC to be a good bet, as the P/E & Earning for FY15(Expected) to be good comparatively good. Both RSI as well as MACD has shown some divergence.

I am not a pharmabull. But, I want to play it technically. Buy if HUL give a positive breakout. I see this stock to be bullish and the stock is expected to move up to 680/725, if it fails to give any breakout the stock find its support at 484/434. 

Monday, September 16, 2013

Strategy for Gold on FOCM meeting

Today all eyes are on FOCM meet to be held. Not only commodity and Gold but Forex and stock market will have implication of the meeting which is to be held today or tomorrow(Source: Business Standards). Anticipating strategies for gold, all eyes are on tapering of bonds by fed. Many experts believe that Fed will come up with taping of bond buying program. If it happens gold will loose value globally.

Technical
An open up candle followed by a bearish engulfing had given a clear indication of a possible bearish trend 28k &26K are the good supports as seen in technical charts. More clarity will be seen after fed's bond buying strategy.  

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Gold what's next??

I never expected gold above 32,500. Since June-July I am giving regular updates on my blog on a special request. After formation of a  expanding triangle, gold had reached 34,500 testing a new height. After a breakout of 32,500. The sustainability was not seen , after a negative reversal gold reached its climax; starting a correction.



Know we have a question where do gold find its support. Currently we have 2 major supports and 2 trend-lines. But 30,000(50%; fib) is found to be next level, if it fail. We can see gold 27,800-28,000 as a powerful support.


 Fibonacci levels


Major SAR
Gold can be a good investment if we witness any reversal at 30,000 levels. We may see gold again touching 34,500/ testing new heights.

To read previous article on Gold: Click here

Friday, August 23, 2013

Gold; Where is it?

Gold has become a huge political issue. In spite of many artificial measures to stop import of gold, government has miserably failed. This eventually led to the domino effect in the entire Indian Financial Markets.


We are currently seeing Gold at upper level the RSI is giving a caution signal and we have 2 major resistances ahead. It’s a high time for gold, the trend-line which was broken by gold during the end of March and the upper level resistance @32,500.

We are seeing signals from gold of a possible correction. Which will start from the first week of next month or prior. 

If gold is able to give a breakout and sustain the breakout gold is again a screaming buy.

For previous article on gold; Click Here

Sunday, August 4, 2013

Jetairways; an Analysis

Most of the aviation stocks are at a downtrend, few hit badly. I am seeing Jet airways to be a potential stock. it is forming a falling wedge along with it we are seeing divergence. The stock has even given a per-mature breakout. The target are showen above in the figure. If the stocks fail to give a breakout the stock is expected to find support at 275 

Monday, July 22, 2013

High Profitability Trading

When it comes to ultimate trading system; everyone are interested to know about. Obviously it is one of the curious topic discussed form centuries. Everything started form plotting “X” and “O” on cigarette packs or placing candles on a sand table.  Technical Analysis grew as an industry without even realizing.

We have witnessed many things in these times Black–Scholes, quant, expert system, cutting edge software’s, back testing and  dozens & dozens of indicators. Let me come again, where are we today. A time we are bombarded too many techniques, models, strategies and methods. Few sold over courses and coaching’s few are shown on YouTube few kept hush-hush.  Ultimately, today we leave in a world where we have too many techniques to follow too many indicators been invented few paid, few unpaid, few reliable and few aren’t.

After spending centuries of time, and spending huge amount of money. What we have found? Is it an ultimate trading system? The answer is no and we won’t find it until we understand the simplest things of stock market. That’s volatility, price and volume; all these are the basic pillars of technical analysis. Any indicators, trends, patterns follow these basic principles of markets.
Stock market is not a Pandora box it’s a simple demand and supply. There is nothing called as high profitability trading technique, every system have its own risk. Risk and reward are the basic inherent variables of any trade using a system. Remember, every system have certain risk even a risk free model such as Black–Scholes model also had a risk with it. Ultimately we are left with models which can be applied the only thing that you have to know is when to apply.

I love Kung-fu Panda, the most loved part in that movie is “nothing”. The soup-noodles isn't made up of a special ingredient nor there is any special description about martial arts on dragon scroll. Similarly we have left out with nothing in stock market. I have literally seen peoples who make money only using candle sticks and moving averages. And they are doing well, I regularly hear about a marwadi in Bangalore who use manual tools for predicting market. And that man is well-known for accuracy. How did he do that? It is nothing but shear dedication towards market.



This Sunday I was able to interact with an interesting man he is very close to Indian army. He told “Any army in the world have an average IQ. It isn’t an IQ that make that difference, it the discipline”. Larry Berman told something similar “I am a technical analyst; I have people to punch my orders”. Guys, any bullshit can make money out of market and we have good examples for that: Turtles, Million Dollar Traders (documentary) and many more. In an official blog of Rakesh Junjunwala described “people laughed at me when I told I want to be in stock market”(When Rakesh took a decision to start trading in his college days).


Coming again, we have nothing called as high profitability trading. If there is so than its you. And only you.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

RIL: An Analysis for 25/4/13


After one cycle swing seen in reliance I am looking a reversal. The stock has a powerful resistance at 850. If it able to cross then we can see the stock going up to 920.

Indicators:  we are seeing a bullish divergence which is been building from long days. We see this divergence in MACD. We have even seen a good crossover as most of the stock has been in a bearish mode. It is been a hotspot for many of the investors.


Fib Levels:  As I had told above this stock may find resistance at 50%. If it manages to cross that level, it will reach to 920. Which will lead to 920 levels; the stock is looks potential and we may even see the stock moving more than 940 as the divergence is strong.

Moving Average: I have been looking for a long time. The stock is more sentimental towards 20 DMA. After confirmation of a breakout in 20 DMA this stock is found to be bullish.


Sunday, April 14, 2013

A Falling Wedge in Sensex


We have seen market consolidating, these days. The cocktail of negative news have driven market near to 18000 levels. Before it reach 18000 we are seeing falling wedge pattern forming. 
A Falling Wedge

A Divergence Building up 

Simultaneously, we are seeing a Bullish Divergence forming in market. As we are seeing a gap filling have started up in Sensex. We may see a reversal @18000 level after filling up of gap; which will eventually lead to a bullish breakout in Falling wedge.



Important SAR