IPO India Information (BSE / NSE)

Showing posts with label Sangames.K.S. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sangames.K.S. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Market Commentary:12/9/2014



Major Indian Index Nifty and Sensex opened negative and after two failed attempts to stay positive Nifty Slipped -1.16% and Sensex slipped -1.15%. Both the Indices gave conformation of 20DMA negative breakout which happened yesterday. Indian Market ended up its 8 week low.

Today all the major Indices were negative; India VIX was up by 2.36%. The major losers in stock are SSTL, ONGC, Tata Power, Tata Steel and the top gainers are M&M, Dr. Reddy, Sun Pharma and HCL Tech  

Most of all Asian Markets are in negative in which Chinese market fell over 5% creating a major fall since 2009. Meanwhile Brent Crude oil hit its 5 year low at USD 66/Barrel.   

Technical Analyst predicts 100DMA can be the next support for Nifty and Sensex. Indian stock market is likely to consolidate further this week. Traders say weak global cues and rise in current account deficit (CAD) is the major reason for today’s fall.

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Technical Analysis on SBIN (State Bank of India)

I m looking SBI for a correction. The stocks is at its resistance and if the trend line gets broken the stock will drop at its support 1837. 

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Idea Cellular: continuation of downtrend (Technical Analysis on request)

For a few days from now the Idea  Cellular was making a bearish divergence on RSI and today it has given a downside breakout. which will lead the stock price to 125 or 101 within next few months. Here in the picture below we can see that the stock has given a downside breakout for the divergence

The possible supports for Idea

When we see at larger picture of Idea cellular we  can see that the stock has given a breakout(Downside/ Bearish) and failed to regain the bullish trend. Thus leading the stock into downtrend. Most of all major moving average namely 50DMA, 100DMA, 200DMA have given a negative crossover which is now making this stock a unfavorable piece of stock.  

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

How to play with FMCG this year?

Since the news of Stake rise by Anglo-Dutch company Unileaver  PLC is ready to pump some +19K crores which is roughly around 67%. The FMCG market had a hard time; slowdown, high cost, profit margin, rupee depreciation, had affected almost all FMCG stocks. We have seen a consolidation of HUL stock from last June-July even FMCG stock have seen consolidation from September 2013.

FMCG CNX Analysis
 Currently CNX FMCG is just below 200DMA and trend-line is standing as a support. There is a possibility we may see a reversal. Stake rise is not only a problem with HUL, many foreign companies are rising stake in major FMCG companies like Pepsico, GSK and few  in other subsidiaries. It was basically a result of 
SEBI’s and RBI’s change of rules in minimum public shareholdings.

FMCG CNX had formed a Symmetrical triangle now; It had not given any directional breakout.

Analysis on HUL
The Stake rise news had created a fluctuation thus forming a Descending Triangle pattern, which had also given a negative breakout.  Along with it we are also seeing a divergence now, and forming a reversal pattern.


The stock is not an attractive stocks for analyst and many find ITC to be a good bet, as the P/E & Earning for FY15(Expected) to be good comparatively good. Both RSI as well as MACD has shown some divergence.

I am not a pharmabull. But, I want to play it technically. Buy if HUL give a positive breakout. I see this stock to be bullish and the stock is expected to move up to 680/725, if it fails to give any breakout the stock find its support at 484/434. 

Sunday, April 28, 2013

Weekly analysis of Sensex: 29th April to 3rd March 2013




The market  will  looking sluggish this week the resistance of 19712 will be a major resistance for this week the market is expected to have  18624 as a support at lower side. we are seeing a negative divergence in in Sensex, this may drive to 18624.


 Am I bullish on Sensex?
No, I expect a consolidation. We are seeing a risk building out in Sensex, as per me this week is the week for profits booking. Most of the short term players may book profit this week.



How much consolidation is good for Sensex?
18510-18000 need to be the support below which market is not healthy to grab. If market manages to consolidate below 18000 levels we may see a free fall upto 17500/16900.




Tuesday, April 23, 2013

RIL: An Analysis for 25/4/13


After one cycle swing seen in reliance I am looking a reversal. The stock has a powerful resistance at 850. If it able to cross then we can see the stock going up to 920.

Indicators:  we are seeing a bullish divergence which is been building from long days. We see this divergence in MACD. We have even seen a good crossover as most of the stock has been in a bearish mode. It is been a hotspot for many of the investors.


Fib Levels:  As I had told above this stock may find resistance at 50%. If it manages to cross that level, it will reach to 920. Which will lead to 920 levels; the stock is looks potential and we may even see the stock moving more than 940 as the divergence is strong.

Moving Average: I have been looking for a long time. The stock is more sentimental towards 20 DMA. After confirmation of a breakout in 20 DMA this stock is found to be bullish.


Sunday, April 14, 2013

A Falling Wedge in Sensex


We have seen market consolidating, these days. The cocktail of negative news have driven market near to 18000 levels. Before it reach 18000 we are seeing falling wedge pattern forming. 
A Falling Wedge

A Divergence Building up 

Simultaneously, we are seeing a Bullish Divergence forming in market. As we are seeing a gap filling have started up in Sensex. We may see a reversal @18000 level after filling up of gap; which will eventually lead to a bullish breakout in Falling wedge.



Important SAR

Sunday, March 24, 2013

A Story of Turtles; History of Trend Following


Richard J. Dennis, a man who made a history in the world of trend following. Many of us use trend following in their investments & trading practice. But most of the people are not aware of this person and his contribution to Trend and Trend analysis.
Richard Dennis


It was the year of 1970’s when a 17 year old student of philosophy Richard J. Dennis; started this career as a floor trader at Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Soon after his education he returned to trading. He borrowed $1,600 from his family, which after spending $1,200 on a seat at the Mid-American Exchange left him $400 in trading capital. In 1970, his trading increased this to $3,000, which he described as "compared to $400 ... a real grubstake", and in 1973 his capital was over $100,000. He made a profit of $500,000 trading soybeans in 1974, and by the end of that year was a millionaire, just short of twenty-six years of age. Today he is well known as a commodity speculator once known as the "Prince of the Pit".

The story of turtles
Dennis believed that successful trading could be taught. So, along with William Eckhardt, a friend and fellow trader, Dennis recruited and trained 21 men and 2 women, in two groups, one from December 1983, and the other from December 1984. In January 1984, after the two-week training period was ended, Dennis gave each of the Turtles a trading account and had them trade the systems they had been taught . During this one-month trading period, they were allowed to trade a maximum of 12 contracts per market. After the trial-period ended, he gave the few of them who had successfully traded the system during the one-month trial, accounts ranging from $250,000 to $2 million of his own money to manage.
An advertisement by Richard Dennis


Selection of Turtles
 Dennis placed an ad in The Wall Street Journal and thousands applied to learn trading at the feet of widely acknowledged masters in the world of commodity trading.
In the selection process he asked basic question like
1.     The big money in trading is made when one can get long at lows after a big downtrend.
2.     It is not helpful to watch every quote in the markets one trades.
3.     Others' opinions of the market are good to follow.
4.     If one has $10,000 to risk, one ought to risk $2,500 on every trade.
5.     On initiation one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs.

Trading Strategy
Dennis trained this group, known as Turtles, for only two weeks introduction about a simple trend-following system, trading a range of commodities, currencies, and bond markets, buying when prices increased above their recent range, and selling when they fell below their recent range. They were taught to cut position size during losing periods and to pyramid aggressively—up to a third or a half of total exposure, although only 24% of total capital would be exposed at any one time. This type of trading system will generate losses in periods when the market is range-bound, often for months at a time, and profits during large market moves.

In "The Complete TurtleTrader: The Legend, the Lessons, the Results" (2007), author Michael Covel offers some insights into the specific rules:

  • Look at prices rather than relying on information from television or newspaper commentators to make your trading decisions.
  • Have some flexibility in setting the parameters for your buy and sell signals. Test different parameters for different markets to find out what works best from your personal perspective.
  • Plan your exit as you plan your entry. Know when you will take profits and when you will cut losses.
  • Use the average true range (ATR-an indicator) to calculate volatility and use this to vary your position size. Take larger positions in less volatile markets and lessen your exposure to the most volatile markets.
  • Don't ever risk more than 2% of your account on a single trade.
  • If you want to make big returns, you need to get comfortable with large drawdowns.

Outcome of Turtles
The story of how a group of non-traders learned to trade for big profits is one of the great stock market legends. Dennis earned more than $175 million in only five years. He also proved that, beginners can learn to trade successfully. Number of turtles (e.g. Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital, Liz Cheval of EMC, Paul Rabar of  Rabar Market Research) began and continued careers as successful commodity trading managers, using techniques similar, but not identical, to the Turtle System.





Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Bajaj Auto Ltd, A Analysis

After a corrective wave from 2223 the stock fell upto 12% causing a bullish divergence. MADC is below 0 line and making the stock more attractive and RSI is showing a strong bullishness. The stock have a potential to go upto 2220. 

Monday, January 21, 2013

Success Story, A Analysis on Rel Cap

On 26th November 2012 I had told this stock will shoot up. And I was right, the stock gave nearly 30% return. Know I find this stock to be at a profit booking stock as we are seeing a bearish divergence.

Strategy: profit booking, can go with a fresh buy if it cross over 520 level.

Look for my previous article on Rel cap(on 26/11/12): Click Here




Tuesday, January 15, 2013

"Haven't I told you?" ITC Reversal

I repeatedly wrote 2 articles regarding ITC Ltd seeing a possible reversal. I gave an exact support when a guy  asked  me a query, on my Blog. The stock was in a corrective phase where I saw a bullish divergence and predicted well before it happened.
  • My article on ITC where I told it will go into a corrective Phase(Date:20/12/2012): Click Here
  • My article on ITC where I spotted a reversal (Date:8/1/2013):Click Here
  • My article on  ITC standing on my support(Date:7/1/2012):Click Here