Saturday, November 26, 2011

Tata steel ka kya haal hey?

It has been over a month I was tracking TATA STEEL and I was successful tracking the down channel. Today I am back to Tata steel, saying I am willing to see a reversal at 350 or so. Tata steel is having a “Potential Resistance” at 440. Imagine if Tata steel manages to fill the gap catch old trend line it is aswm(A nice dream) ;)  … But from last few months steel industries are not good for investment and seems market may recover at next march. Not only Tata most of the steel sector have gone down.

I have an another theory where I feel market may even struggle to reach +3% and tumble down breaking the trend line what I have shown. Parabolic SAR and MACD are quit neutral so I feel quit nerves to come with a clear decision. But RSI is giving a buy single.

It is better to wait and watch when Tata steel reaches 350.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Doing same in an unusual way!

From last 3 days we have seen bearish signals from MACD. Know I am eager to say that I have spotted a reversal. As you all know I am a great follower of Bollinger Band, and band turning into good supports and resistances.  Even the Parabolic SAR had conformed a long bearish run. Yet I am confident to say that I am eager to see reversal. I hope market will show good support according to fib levels as I have shown in the figure. I am also eager to see how MA are going to work. Normally 20d and 100d are not a good combinations yet I am willing to try something “New”….

Monday, November 14, 2011

1st time working on Fib levels

Hello everyone. I need to be back on December, but due to some personal reason I am back. So I taught to post my review for this week

As I have told you I was likely to see a “Double Top”, I went wrong L .  But as I had told you that market will once again slide down (Taking a risk). I was right, once again. I have also predicted a negative crossover in MACD. Hurry I was right. Last week I had given you 2 possibilities.  Fortunately I was right and plan B never worked for me.

As I have told you last week that, it will be too early to spot future supports. Know I have started to think of supports. Getting into market once again, the recent breakout of support had made market to move once again into that rectangle. Know the real sentiment of market will work. Currently market is having a support at 17062. As we have seen a poor MACD signal I am confident that market will easily break this support. Testing lower supports.

Actually I don’t have my handy book “as my friends are having there exam this month end, I have given my books to them. Even though there syllabus carry a negligible part of Technical Analysis my friends were really curious to know how Technical Analysis work etc..etc..”. Being a Marketing student last week I took a class covering 2 Modules of Technical Analysis for my Finance buddies. My friends were satisfied as I gave more than what they need to. Most of my friends rise there eyebrow when they hear Technical Analysis. Let me be clear Technical Analysis is the easiest Chapter. The only thing is you need a right person and a right material/ resource.

As I don’t have my book I am unarmed. I have never worked on fib levels and this is the first time I am using it. I hope my analysis go right as it use to…. I have given you the different support levels by Fib retracement level. Hope market follow Fib lines… I have pointed my support which I feel may turn into a good supports.

Monday, November 7, 2011

Will be Back on December

Our exams are going to end between the 1st week of December. So hope to see you all next month :)

Do i suspect a "Double Top?"

Once again I am ready to take a risk to say, it again. That market “may” form a kind of double top and then slide to my given levels. I have not yet stated working on supports. I still say band work once again.

There is still a plan “B” buzzing in my mind. What happens if I go wrong!

If I go wrong I will be willing to look this as a Elliott theorist. The resent correction I had spotted will be wave 2, and market will head to wave 3 which will be having potential to exceed 19000 levels

I am confident on my analysis. Hope I don’t use this plan B.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Friends request:What Is a Stock Market Correction?

Anyone who watches the stock market knows it doesn't move up or down in a straight line. Some days it's up; other days it's down. If you look at the bigger picture, however, you'll see that the market moves in trends--that is, it moves predominantly in a single direction over time. Within that larger trend, there will be periods when the market moves in the direction opposite the prevailing trend. Such moves are called corrections.
  1. Identification

    • A stock market correction is a temporary reversal in the major trend before the trend resumes. Though a market correction runs counter to the previously established trend, it doesn't represent the beginning of a new trend, at least so long as it remains a correction. A correction most often refers to a downward price movement after prolonged rallies, but it actually means a normalization of prices in either direction.


    • Stock market corrections occur when the investors and speculators driving a trend take profits. Most traders use comparison of risk and reward to evaluate the viability of any position. As a trend matures, risk begins to outweigh reward. Thus, a correction helps to tilt the balance back toward reward as prices return to more favorable entry levels.


    • In most cases, an individual stock or a broader market will use a correction to return to a support or resistance level. This can be a trailing moving average or a previous price point that served as a top or a bottom within the trend. In practical terms, ownership of shares changes hands from short-term investors--who ride a trend--to long-term investors who make acquisitions. This process is called moving from weak hands to strong hands, and tends to quiet volatility. Because the stronger hands are less likely to part with their shares, the correction (if downward) tends to fuel another rally as speculators try to again purchase shares but find themselves having to pay more.


    • Corrections are also called retracements because they move back over the same price territory recently covered by the major trend. One strategy of technical analysis focuses specifically on the extent to which a correction retraces the previous trend in order to gauge its progress. A minor correction retraces a little more than one third of the previous trend, while a larger retracement might cover a little more than two thirds. Fifty percent retracements are not uncommon, and are widely used to distinguish between major and minor corrections. A retracement of about three-quarters of a previous move is a very deep correction, and any more than that begins to suggest that a new major trend might have begun.

    Time Frame

    • Corrections are also evaluated in terms of their time frame, using the same ratios as described above for retracements in price. Retracements that are shallow in price tend to last longer in duration. Conversely, those that are deep in price seem to happen faster. By this logic, a deep correction that lasts as long as the previous trend can start to be viewed as a new trend. Shallow corrections of a very short duration probably wouldn’t be considered a correction at all.

Friday, November 4, 2011

A short bye bye

I have my exam, which will go on this month. I will be busy preparing for my exam so will be unable to update my blog. I will be back on December 1st week. Till then a small bye bye.

Yes I was Right

Yes I was right. I have told you that market will come down even after seeing Parabolic SAR, as there was no reversal signal, even after seeing a gap I was confident that market will not hold the higher level. Bollinger band really work good. The market has crossed rectangle and have been managing a support around 17300-320 this week. As I have told if it manage the support we can see sum bullish run.

I expect a crossover in MACD, probably a negative crossover according to my analysis. From last one week we have seen market playing between 17320 to 17730. Markets have full potential to reach 17918 resistances. And then it will go to a correction again, this time market will slide up to 16782(If it fail support at 17384). And then market will head to 18300.  

For me 18300 is still seem as a hurdle if market manage to overcome it. We will see bullish market. As per my expectation