Thursday, December 29, 2011

Tata Steel: Regular Bullish Divergence

No one trusted me when i told i found a reversal. I am still bullish. the reason to be bullish is because we have seen  some divergence in TATASTL. we may expect some positive sentiments in market.  

Hear tata stl is making LL, but MACD is making HL. As the divergence is not strong. we need to play with "Caution" 

statuary warning: Go with a Stop Loss. As I have told you "I am not playing for Profit, I am playing for my EGO". profit doesn't matter. you are picking a stock with downtrend. so risk is very high.


Friends in last article I had told you about Style of learning. Know in this part, I will be explaining how to know where you belong. Hear we will be doing something called as “behavioural analysis”. Your behaviour is a reflection of your Sub-conscious mind and we will be trying to know what’s going into your mind. The analysis that we are doing is by a very famous psychologist called Fleming’s VAK Model

Hear we will be looking at some behavioural question to know yourself better from what you actually are.

Take a paper and note down answer as “Yes”, “No” and “occasionally”
Note: all the heads namely audio, visual, and kinaesthetic need to be answered separately.
Auditory Learning

  • You read very loud, so that you can hear your voice
  • You are good at grammar
  • You always love to speak. But hate to right
  • I enjoy songs and concentrate on lyrics in song
  • I cant keep quit for long time

Visual learning

·         I am good at spelling
·         When I read I want complete silence
·         I love colours and fashion
·         I can understand graph, charts &figures.
·         I am good in understanding sign language.

Kinesthetic learning

  • I can’t sit for long time. At least I start playing with my hand or shake my leg
  • I don’t have good handwriting and I am not good writing long answers
  • I like science lab
  • I love adventure and good at sports
  • I build models and experiment/play with it.

 The category which is have more “yes”, that is your “Style of learning”.

“In my next part I will be posting an article on HOW TO USE YOUR LEARNING TYPE?”

                                                                               To be continued…


What is Learning?

Learning is acquiring new or modifying existing knowledgebehaviorsskillsvalues, or preferences and may involve synthesizing different types of information. The ability to learn is possessed by humans, animals and some machines. Progress over time tends to follow learning curves.

Every person has his own style of learning. It happens with everyone, everyone learn. It is not limited to a student. Even in an organisation we need learning, it is an endless process which will continue as long as you are alive.

Types of learning

  • Auditory Learning: In this type of learning a person/student grasp from what they ear and hear it. These are the type of people who are effective in hearing and don’t give much importance what they see. In some case these types of people also finds unnecessary when your teacher write on your board. What really happen in there brain?  They copy all the sentence/world/rhythm and remember whole thing as it is. When needed they recover from the part which is situated at upper part of your ear called as “Auditory Cortex” which store, what we hear.  

  • Visual Learning: The people of this category are said to prefer to sit at 1st bench in there school days. They look at body language, what is written on board etc. These are basically “see and learn” group, who love to see and copy that image in there brain. The image you see is stored in a part called “Optical Cortex”. When you need any information you remember by an image in your brain.

  • Kinesthetic  Learning: In early psychological expedition this type of learning was underestimated. Later they found the real power of Motor cortex and association cortex. I don’t want to confuse you all. It is learning by experiment where you actually feel, touch and experience. These are the things what an employee do in his early days of this job and carry on. The reason why many company ask your work experience. Actually they are not asking your work experience they are asking your kinaesthetic experience. That is how well you are connected to your job.

How brain work in learning process?
Our brain is a wonderful process machine each and every part of you brain are given there specified job and they do there job collectively. In above we have seen how our brain collects information. Know all the collected information is processed and a mental picture emerge(your brain think from the collected data you are having in your brain)  this is done by a part of our brain called “Association Cortex”

“This is my  1st part where I have described how your brain works collectively for your learning. In later parts I will be explaining you how to identify yourself? And where do you fall in these categories. This is a universal principal; it is not only applicable learning Technical Analysis, but also many things in your life. It might be your regular curriculum or something Weird what I do”
                                                                                                            To be continued…..

Sunday, December 25, 2011

Tata Steel: Updated Version

Hello friends a month back I have spotted the reversal and told you that I am “neutral” on buying Tata Steel. There wear many reasons to be neutral. But I have told you that “Tata Steel is in a downtrend, and follow the channel”. Tata Steel doesn’t reach your support and resistance. Thus caused a bit nervous and confused but, I was right saying Tata Steel in downtrend.

Today I am once again back saying I have once again spotted a reversal. This time it’s not “Profit Factor” it’s “EGO Factor”.

This time I am playing Tata Steel with targets of 370/375/380+. SL 340

Note: When you are uncertain in buying any stock “Never Buy”. It not only creates confusion, it leads you in a state of “Panic”, which cause you to make low profit, sometimes loss. I have avoided Tata Steel as was not confident in buying.

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Must see: If u want to b a Trader/Investor in Stock Market?

Hi friends this is documentary that I had seen around 6 months ago. and this is one such video which created a curiosity to know more and more. If you want to enter into such market you need Right Talent, Intelligence and  Knowledge. It is recommended that before entering any market you should need to know the insight view of it. And this video do say that.

This video is quit lengthy and some of my friends had felt boring to see this, so i recommend to see this with a curiosity. I hope this video will obviously through some light.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Reliance Industries Ltd: catching a falling knife

There is no reason to be bullish.. Yes I am confident in saying that. From last few days we have seen in downtrend. Know we have not seen any sign of a “reversal”. It is better to stay away from this stock.

If reliance manage to break that downtrend channel. We may think to hook it. As per know “avoid it”

Tata Motors: Waiting for breakout

90% I am bullish, 10% I am not.

We have seen a bullish crossover in MACD, where we have seen 2 main possibilities for buying. I can blindly buy, but I am waiting for “c”. If we see a positive breakout then it is a potential buy. I have not willing to take a risk as it is my 1st time playing with “Symmetric Triangle”

We have seen a potential crossover
MACD: we have seen a positive crossover
MACD: zero line/centre line crossovers

Monday, December 19, 2011

Tata Motors: looking good

A symmetrical triangle.

I hope I have got it right this time.

Yes, I have clarified. It's a Symmetrical Triangle.

Geometric Ltd: Yes, I am right……

Hi friends once again my analysis was right. As soon as I saw the divergence I tapped my shoulders, told myself “Good  Job!!!”… Soon a day or so MACD showed a negative crossover, conforming what I had told.

Today I am back with supports levels. Even MACD and Parabolic SAR are strong. I hope my supports levels will work.

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Rel Com Ltd: Did you see that?

I was in a confusion, calling it a Symmetric Triangle or Descending Triangle. After a short conversation a Technical Analyst told me that it's a Descending Triangle. 

Saturday, December 17, 2011

What did i really do,this year?

Hello friends I was bit busy after my exams. On dec 12th I had completed a year into Stock Market. My personal experience can’t be described in world. I just loved what I did/doing.

A question always hit my mind “what you really learnt in this whole year?”

The answer is mind blowing; you can do anything and everything. You just need dedication; I have a basic rule led by the great Kabir in his Dhohas:

"करत करत अभ्यास के, जड़मति होत सुजान
रसरी आवत जात ते, सिल पर परत निसान"

There are 4 mode of learning and one of them is “Trial and Error Method”. Last whole year I had spent whole of my year I had spent in hunting for knowledge, a right one. In this year I had spent most of my time in confusion, quest and with a bunch of question etc etc

I some time feel, I had spent whole year just looking and learning. Did you know what I learnt? Ok let me be truthful, what your college or university teach is completely different what people do as there career and I have seen such people in market..

·          A person who complete GNIIT in Delhi and work as a successful Broker.
·         A person who complete his in Bio and work as on stock market analyst.
·         A horoscope reader who give his business a new dimension called “Stock market Astrologer”
·         A person who graduate in Arts and end as a Teacher of TA.

After seeing such people in market I was really inspired. If they can do, why can’t I do. This question dragged me into many sleepless nights at last I decided to enter into a world of “Demand and Supply” . This is a world where even an Expert gets cheated off. An university/ institute will just teach you what is what. I even don’t have that…

Since from my childhood I have a rule “No knowledge goes waste, grab it as much as you can”. I think this may be the reason why my friends call me “scientist”. Last 6 month back I need to decide my stream in college. I had 2 options:

  • Finance
  • Marketing

This was much difficult to judge. I even took the last minute to think before I let my name into specialized stream.

Finance(Stock market) is my interest and marketing is my talent(where I am good at). I have a deep understanding on Marketing and advertisement, I cant underestimate my talent. It was just 2/3 month that I had Started learning Technical Analysis.

Marketing/Finance din’t give me any difference. I was the only freak in the whole college who used to borrow books on “Investment Management, Option & future Trading etc” I still remember 1st day in my marketing class where I was asked to leave class as they misunderstood me as a finance guy. I was so dedicated to what I was doing.

When my fellow friends come to know about this “They laugh at me, they insulted me and they criticised me”

Today, I don’t give any guarantee that, I will make my career in Stock Market. But Technical Analysis will be a integral part of my life. I have a deep desire to learn Economics and Fundamental Analysis. I hope I will complete it in next few years.

From 4th dec I have started a new topic which is not at all related to Stock Market. It is on psychology, it may take another 6 months to complete it so I will give less concentration on TA and other aspects.

Last but not the least

“ you will never come to know the depth of water until and unless you jump into it”

Monday, December 5, 2011

Geometric Limited: “Wait, Watch and Hook”

Geometric Limited is looking attractive according to Technical aspects. The company had managed to break the downtrend channel. I would not recommend to Buy at this level as RSI is “not” showing +ve signals. It would be better if we buy it after a short correction. As geometric have started testing resistance, it would be better if we buy after correction. Geometric have “not” shown any reversal.

As MACD  is bit strong, I feel we may spot a BARR- Bump & Run Reversal. I am confident on my analysis.

“Wait, Watch and Hunch” 

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Tata steel ka kya haal hey?

It has been over a month I was tracking TATA STEEL and I was successful tracking the down channel. Today I am back to Tata steel, saying I am willing to see a reversal at 350 or so. Tata steel is having a “Potential Resistance” at 440. Imagine if Tata steel manages to fill the gap catch old trend line it is aswm(A nice dream) ;)  … But from last few months steel industries are not good for investment and seems market may recover at next march. Not only Tata most of the steel sector have gone down.

I have an another theory where I feel market may even struggle to reach +3% and tumble down breaking the trend line what I have shown. Parabolic SAR and MACD are quit neutral so I feel quit nerves to come with a clear decision. But RSI is giving a buy single.

It is better to wait and watch when Tata steel reaches 350.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Doing same in an unusual way!

From last 3 days we have seen bearish signals from MACD. Know I am eager to say that I have spotted a reversal. As you all know I am a great follower of Bollinger Band, and band turning into good supports and resistances.  Even the Parabolic SAR had conformed a long bearish run. Yet I am confident to say that I am eager to see reversal. I hope market will show good support according to fib levels as I have shown in the figure. I am also eager to see how MA are going to work. Normally 20d and 100d are not a good combinations yet I am willing to try something “New”….

Monday, November 14, 2011

1st time working on Fib levels

Hello everyone. I need to be back on December, but due to some personal reason I am back. So I taught to post my review for this week

As I have told you I was likely to see a “Double Top”, I went wrong L .  But as I had told you that market will once again slide down (Taking a risk). I was right, once again. I have also predicted a negative crossover in MACD. Hurry I was right. Last week I had given you 2 possibilities.  Fortunately I was right and plan B never worked for me.

As I have told you last week that, it will be too early to spot future supports. Know I have started to think of supports. Getting into market once again, the recent breakout of support had made market to move once again into that rectangle. Know the real sentiment of market will work. Currently market is having a support at 17062. As we have seen a poor MACD signal I am confident that market will easily break this support. Testing lower supports.

Actually I don’t have my handy book “as my friends are having there exam this month end, I have given my books to them. Even though there syllabus carry a negligible part of Technical Analysis my friends were really curious to know how Technical Analysis work etc..etc..”. Being a Marketing student last week I took a class covering 2 Modules of Technical Analysis for my Finance buddies. My friends were satisfied as I gave more than what they need to. Most of my friends rise there eyebrow when they hear Technical Analysis. Let me be clear Technical Analysis is the easiest Chapter. The only thing is you need a right person and a right material/ resource.

As I don’t have my book I am unarmed. I have never worked on fib levels and this is the first time I am using it. I hope my analysis go right as it use to…. I have given you the different support levels by Fib retracement level. Hope market follow Fib lines… I have pointed my support which I feel may turn into a good supports.

Monday, November 7, 2011

Will be Back on December

Our exams are going to end between the 1st week of December. So hope to see you all next month :)

Do i suspect a "Double Top?"

Once again I am ready to take a risk to say, it again. That market “may” form a kind of double top and then slide to my given levels. I have not yet stated working on supports. I still say band work once again.

There is still a plan “B” buzzing in my mind. What happens if I go wrong!

If I go wrong I will be willing to look this as a Elliott theorist. The resent correction I had spotted will be wave 2, and market will head to wave 3 which will be having potential to exceed 19000 levels

I am confident on my analysis. Hope I don’t use this plan B.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Friends request:What Is a Stock Market Correction?

Anyone who watches the stock market knows it doesn't move up or down in a straight line. Some days it's up; other days it's down. If you look at the bigger picture, however, you'll see that the market moves in trends--that is, it moves predominantly in a single direction over time. Within that larger trend, there will be periods when the market moves in the direction opposite the prevailing trend. Such moves are called corrections.
  1. Identification

    • A stock market correction is a temporary reversal in the major trend before the trend resumes. Though a market correction runs counter to the previously established trend, it doesn't represent the beginning of a new trend, at least so long as it remains a correction. A correction most often refers to a downward price movement after prolonged rallies, but it actually means a normalization of prices in either direction.


    • Stock market corrections occur when the investors and speculators driving a trend take profits. Most traders use comparison of risk and reward to evaluate the viability of any position. As a trend matures, risk begins to outweigh reward. Thus, a correction helps to tilt the balance back toward reward as prices return to more favorable entry levels.


    • In most cases, an individual stock or a broader market will use a correction to return to a support or resistance level. This can be a trailing moving average or a previous price point that served as a top or a bottom within the trend. In practical terms, ownership of shares changes hands from short-term investors--who ride a trend--to long-term investors who make acquisitions. This process is called moving from weak hands to strong hands, and tends to quiet volatility. Because the stronger hands are less likely to part with their shares, the correction (if downward) tends to fuel another rally as speculators try to again purchase shares but find themselves having to pay more.


    • Corrections are also called retracements because they move back over the same price territory recently covered by the major trend. One strategy of technical analysis focuses specifically on the extent to which a correction retraces the previous trend in order to gauge its progress. A minor correction retraces a little more than one third of the previous trend, while a larger retracement might cover a little more than two thirds. Fifty percent retracements are not uncommon, and are widely used to distinguish between major and minor corrections. A retracement of about three-quarters of a previous move is a very deep correction, and any more than that begins to suggest that a new major trend might have begun.

    Time Frame

    • Corrections are also evaluated in terms of their time frame, using the same ratios as described above for retracements in price. Retracements that are shallow in price tend to last longer in duration. Conversely, those that are deep in price seem to happen faster. By this logic, a deep correction that lasts as long as the previous trend can start to be viewed as a new trend. Shallow corrections of a very short duration probably wouldn’t be considered a correction at all.

Friday, November 4, 2011

A short bye bye

I have my exam, which will go on this month. I will be busy preparing for my exam so will be unable to update my blog. I will be back on December 1st week. Till then a small bye bye.

Yes I was Right

Yes I was right. I have told you that market will come down even after seeing Parabolic SAR, as there was no reversal signal, even after seeing a gap I was confident that market will not hold the higher level. Bollinger band really work good. The market has crossed rectangle and have been managing a support around 17300-320 this week. As I have told if it manage the support we can see sum bullish run.

I expect a crossover in MACD, probably a negative crossover according to my analysis. From last one week we have seen market playing between 17320 to 17730. Markets have full potential to reach 17918 resistances. And then it will go to a correction again, this time market will slide up to 16782(If it fail support at 17384). And then market will head to 18300.  

For me 18300 is still seem as a hurdle if market manage to overcome it. We will see bullish market. As per my expectation 

Friday, October 28, 2011

I still want to stick to my point

As it is too early to predict the corrections. The support and resistance what i have shown hold a good sense ... i can even call it as magical support and resistance. market was in a rectangle and today it had been  broken. Technical analyst have a great belief that Bollinger Band will stand as a good support and resistance..  and when you see todays chart we can easily say it's time for a correction. 

Note: if market maintain a good support and it is having a resistance which can become a hurdle... If it  manage to come both of this hurdle i can call market as bullish..

Thursday, October 27, 2011

What is my view on sensex?

My view on sensex is as similar as other technical analysts.. hear i would like to explain why market is not a right pick for this Diwali.
  • RSI. as RSI have indicated a overbought signal.
  • Even %R is not showing a healthy sign.
  • Parabolic SAR. have not yet shown any reversal sign.
  • 17440 look me as a good resistance, if it break than. we may directly don't see a bullish run but can say as a ray of hope.. because from last few month market have struck itself in a rectangle. if market move as predicted it may be +ve sign.
  • Conclusion: Market need some correction and will go into correction as many analyst. right know i am working on "How Much?"

Sunday, October 16, 2011

I have spotted a triangle in SBI

Even thought SBI have managed to fill the gap. i was able to spot a triangle in a 5 day chart. if SBI manage to open above 1900. we will see SBI heading for higher Resistance which are 1900/1919/1934 . if triangle fail we will see a free fall between 1800 to 1750.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

TATASTL: Begins a new downtrend rally

Tata stl is ready to head a downtrend below 420. If tata stl manage to cross 455 it is going to continue the previous trend.  
I am looking Hindalco as bullish stock, if it manages my support. I expect Hindalco will test +135. if it fail my support @128 it will manage my channel support @ 125 heading a downtrend. i hope on monday the stock will be bullish 

I am back

I am once again back with a new blog as i had problem with my old one. i will be once again going to publish. as i used to do with my old blog.