Sunday, June 22, 2014

Gold Rush is Back?

Iraq is now a hottest topic to be spoken in Financial Market. Every country now fear the oil risk which will affect the CAD and boost us inflation. It is always seen that when inflation rise, it also boost gold price as most of the investor think gold to be the safe heaven in a economic crisis thus having a positive correlation between crude oil price and gold price

Every nation is looking at the worst case senior of Iraq. As there is no help/aid form Uncle Sam nor any dominant countries interested to involve in the war, thus making Iraq indulge alone on its own.  Britain is proactive rising interest rate suspecting the oil risk and inflation. For any country the worst case scenario can be a rise in underling crude oil price up-to 10-20%. And this can be seen for next 3-6 months.   

Technical Analysis on Gold
Compared to silver, gold haven not shown any bullish indication as such; except an doji formed on last trading day. The previous pattern seen in gold was a descending triangle pattern and thus gave a indication that the gold rush so called is going to end. but the Iraq was gave a new twist and turn in the price pattern. As per now there is high chance that the gold can make a turn around and stay above 28K. Still 31K is a good resistance. This Iraq crisis will have a short term implication on crude as well as old. Few Indian Jewelry are in a bad condition and this rise in gold price will also affect them. 


Fig 2

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Technical Analysis on Request:S&P CNX Nifty

It is been a massive change in Market dynamics after a terrorist organisation i.e ISIS had captured cities of Iraq. We have seen this implication on Capital, Forex and Commodity. There are few important things we have to understand regarding Iraq, that  is the country is a dominant exporter of oil in OPEC countries and an 2nd largest exporter of oil to the world and hold around 10% of world oil reserve.

Crux of the issue
The recent terror unrest caused in Iraq is directly implicating on world crude oil and that is causing a domino effect on all stocks and commodities all over the world. 

Apart this, we have report saying ISIS are targeting major oil refineries and had hit the countries one of the biggest oil refinery  which supply countries quarter of the oil Demand. 

All the above points mentioned are systematic risk and they are unavoidable and cannot be controlled by a individual. If there is a continuous rise in crude price, it will have a  negative effect as the rise in CAD,  falling rupee and high inflation are unhealthy for the Capital Markets/ Nifty. 

Market Bullish Triggers
Apart Monsoon and Budget result are the most expected result which will trigger a rally. 

 Technical View:
We are clearly able to see that RSI had given a bearish signal and MACD had also given a Bearish crossover see fig 1. Yesterday was a bearish candlestick. Till now the direction is not clear and we still need conformation of today's market. If today is bullish then market we will see a small rally probably making a higher high. If today turns to be a bearish day then market will find a support as  given in fig 2. 

Fig 1
Fig 2

Monday, May 26, 2014

Combo Technical Analysis: Reliance and Century Textile

Reliance Industries
My last 2 articles on Reliance have lead to a profit of nearly 20%. Now The stock is making a bearish Engulfing and Negative reversal on RSI
Century Textile
From the previous article on Century Textile the stock had made 34% Profit. Now the stock is making a bearish engulfing and can show a reversal after a downside breakout 
Click here

Analysis on Request: Gitanjali Gems Ltd

Gitanjali Gems on a Glimpse:
Most of all companies who are into Gold business have been badly hit by the Raghuram Rajan's measure to control deficit last year. Which eventually affected the stocks like Titan, Gitanjali PCJ, TBZ etc. But the most important fact for the observation here is Gitanjali have Rs.3000cr as Debt and there net profit is growing year by year. The stock need to recover from the Raghuram's policy. Along with it, the end of Gold Rush saga will also bring a huge impact on companies operational activities

Recently, RBI eased gold import rules which benefited various people like jewelers, traders, Bullion dealers and banks. But, Raghuram imposed many other  restriction on gold apart import restriction like transaction tax and curbs on ETF. The underlying demand for gold is unchanged and company have potential sales opportunities. I am expecting munch more friendly measure so that it benefit companies like Gitanjali Gems.

Technical Analysis
Technically this stock is strong and recently shown a major crossover of 100DMA & 200DMA. Currently the stock is in consolidation. Untill and unless I see the reversal it is unclear to comment on it. 

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Glenmark Pharma: An Fundamental+ Technical View

The stock is a buzz in every fundamental analyst perspective. And I personally had a look at this industry. And the company is performing good in Indian market majorly capturing heat, breathing, anti-infection and skin segment. All segments are performing a single digit growth (1-5%) yoy apart skin(which is giving +8% growth). I feel the stock had consolidated more than its value, after making a yearly high in recent days.

The stock can currently give a 14% return within few months. And the stock had bullish crossover of (100 & 200DMA). It has also withstood and sharp correction recently, currently the stock has shown a reversal at its support i.e @510. As per my analysis the stock is potentially good in Indian market. And 550 &610 can stand a resistance. This stock can surly be a multibagger if its quarterly & yearly performance is showing the same growth. 

Friday, May 2, 2014

Technical Analysis on Request: DLF Part-2

The stocks like DLF are always volatile and need a keen understanding for trading. Currently the stock is making a bullish divergence and finding support. No reversal is seen

Kindly note: I am a MBA student. Not a certified adviser and I suggest my views on stocks and commodities never recommend for a buy/sell.