How to Calculate Beta of a stock?

Here in this video I have shown how to calculate a beta of the stock using excel and log return.

Click here to view the calculation

Renuka Sugars: A view

Renuka Sugars

India is a handsome consumer of sugar nearly 23 million tons annually. Recently WTO’s stand on export subsidy of raw sugar and Indian’s stand on import of sugar had bought Indian sugar companies in demand.  

"There was an import parity but mills were not signing deals, expecting revision in the import duty. At 25 percent duty, imports are not viable," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.  As per times of India.

From last few days we are able to see upside movement and the stock is near to the downtrend line. If there is a breakout the stock might show the reversal and currently MACD have shown a positive crossover. And RSI is showing bullish signs.

If the stock fail to give a positive breakout it have a support at 14.58. currently the stock is near to its low. 

Reliance Capital: A View

After, Modi coming up with new banks license in India all the trader in the stock market are having a keen interest on the stock which is getting the banking license. Among which we have Reliance who is a big player and the chance of getting the permit is very high.

Technical Perspective

The stock is showing the divergence and we can see a falling wedge pattern . On 9^th September 2014 the stock had given the positive breakout and the on 10^th September 2014 i.e today the stock had shown a Doji. And we can see the can open with a positive note tomorrow. If not; the stock can end up falling to 500 which is the immediate support. And 577 and 670 are the good resistance. The stock has a potential to make a new high.

Additional Observation

The stock is showing negative correlation from last 6 months and we have to see that the patter will continue or the old pattern will repeat. 

Gold Rush is Back?

Iraq is now a hottest topic to be spoken in Financial Market. Every country now fear the oil risk which will affect the CAD and boost us inflation. It is always seen that when inflation rise, it also boost gold price as most of the investor think gold to be the safe heaven in a economic crisis thus having a positive correlation between crude oil price and gold price

Every nation is looking at the worst case senior of Iraq. As there is no help/aid form Uncle Sam nor any dominant countries interested to involve in the war, thus making Iraq indulge alone on its own.  Britain is proactive rising interest rate suspecting the oil risk and inflation. For any country the worst case scenario can be a rise in underling crude oil price up-to 10-20%. And this can be seen for next 3-6 months.   

Technical Analysis on Gold

Compared to silver, gold haven not shown any bullish indication as such; except an doji formed on last trading day. The previous pattern seen in gold was a descending triangle pattern and thus gave a indication that the gold rush so called is going to end. but the Iraq was gave a new twist and turn in the price pattern. As per now there is high chance that the gold can make a turn around and stay above 28K. Still 31K is a good resistance. This Iraq crisis will have a short term implication on crude as well as old. Few Indian Jewelry are in a bad condition and this rise in gold price will also affect them. 

Fig1

Fig 2

Technical Analysis on Request:S&P CNX Nifty

It is been a massive change in Market dynamics after a terrorist organisation i.e ISIS had captured cities of Iraq. We have seen this implication on Capital, Forex and Commodity. There are few important things we have to understand regarding Iraq, that  is the country is a dominant exporter of oil in OPEC countries and an 2nd largest exporter of oil to the world and hold around 10% of world oil reserve.

Crux of the issue

The recent terror unrest caused in Iraq is directly implicating on world crude oil and that is causing a domino effect on all stocks and commodities all over the world. 

Apart this, we have report saying ISIS are targeting major oil refineries and had hit the countries one of the biggest oil refinery  which supply countries quarter of the oil Demand. 

All the above points mentioned are systematic risk and they are unavoidable and cannot be controlled by a individual. If there is a continuous rise in crude price, it will have a  negative effect as the rise in CAD,  falling rupee and high inflation are unhealthy for the Capital Markets/ Nifty. 

Market Bullish Triggers

Apart Monsoon and Budget result are the most expected result which will trigger a rally. 

 Technical View:

We are clearly able to see that RSI had given a bearish signal and MACD had also given a Bearish crossover see fig 1. Yesterday was a bearish candlestick. Till now the direction is not clear and we still need conformation of today's market. If today is bullish then market we will see a small rally probably making a higher high. If today turns to be a bearish day then market will find a support as  given in fig 2. 

Fig 1

Fig 2

Combo Technical Analysis: Reliance and Century Textile

Reliance Industries
My last 2 articles on Reliance have lead to a profit of nearly 20%. Now The stock is making a bearish Engulfing and Negative reversal on RSI

Century Textile

From the previous article on Century Textile the stock had made 34% Profit. Now the stock is making a bearish engulfing and can show a reversal after a downside breakout 

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Analysis on Request: Gitanjali Gems Ltd

Gitanjali Gems on a Glimpse:
Most of all companies who are into Gold business have been badly hit by the Raghuram Rajan's measure to control deficit last year. Which eventually affected the stocks like Titan, Gitanjali PCJ, TBZ etc. But the most important fact for the observation here is Gitanjali have Rs.3000cr as Debt and there net profit is growing year by year. The stock need to recover from the Raghuram's policy. Along with it, the end of Gold Rush saga will also bring a huge impact on companies operational activities

Recently, RBI eased gold import rules which benefited various people like jewelers, traders, Bullion dealers and banks. But, Raghuram imposed many other  restriction on gold apart import restriction like transaction tax and curbs on ETF. The underlying demand for gold is unchanged and company have potential sales opportunities. I am expecting munch more friendly measure so that it benefit companies like Gitanjali Gems.

Technical Analysis

Technically this stock is strong and recently shown a major crossover of 100DMA & 200DMA. Currently the stock is in consolidation. Untill and unless I see the reversal it is unclear to comment on it.