Technical Analysis on Request:S&P CNX Nifty

It is been a massive change in Market dynamics after a terrorist organisation i.e ISIS had captured cities of Iraq. We have seen this implication on Capital, Forex and Commodity. There are few important things we have to understand regarding Iraq, that  is the country is a dominant exporter of oil in OPEC countries and an 2nd largest exporter of oil to the world and hold around 10% of world oil reserve.

Crux of the issue

The recent terror unrest caused in Iraq is directly implicating on world crude oil and that is causing a domino effect on all stocks and commodities all over the world. 

Apart this, we have report saying ISIS are targeting major oil refineries and had hit the countries one of the biggest oil refinery  which supply countries quarter of the oil Demand. 

All the above points mentioned are systematic risk and they are unavoidable and cannot be controlled by a individual. If there is a continuous rise in crude price, it will have a  negative effect as the rise in CAD,  falling rupee and high inflation are unhealthy for the Capital Markets/ Nifty. 

Market Bullish Triggers

Apart Monsoon and Budget result are the most expected result which will trigger a rally. 

 Technical View:

We are clearly able to see that RSI had given a bearish signal and MACD had also given a Bearish crossover see fig 1. Yesterday was a bearish candlestick. Till now the direction is not clear and we still need conformation of today's market. If today is bullish then market we will see a small rally probably making a higher high. If today turns to be a bearish day then market will find a support as  given in fig 2. 

Fig 1

Fig 2

ITC- Reversal

Yesterday at this time I wrote an article on wave analysis and and other factors in ITC. The wave seen in ITC Ltd is a Zig-Zag corrective wave along with it we are seeing a bullish divergence in this stocks. The stock have shown a reversal know.

Conclusion: can go with a good stop loss, it have a target of 10%.

Strategy: see for down-trend line, if it break today. Then bullish  

See yesterdays article on ITC: Click here

Technical Analysis on IVRCL Ltd

On 3rd December I had had told my opinion on my page Experiments With Stocks, The stocks went up to  +9% and gave a bearish engulfing. the price is currently ruling around 42. I was away from this stocks but a sudden Harami drew my attention.

According to me the stock have a potential to go upto 47. If it show a reversal know. If not the stock have a  support at 39.

Ashok Leyland, a falling wedge

After witnessing Ashok making some lows, I smell some bullishness in this stock. It is recent; I have spotted a falling wedge formation along with a divergence forming. According to me, Ashok Leyland is going to make a new low then will get ready to shoot high.

We have recently seen MACD making a negative crossover and RSI giving a buy signal.

Conclusion:  wait till pattern complete, look for divergence.  

Technical view: ACC Ltd

Tata Steel: Regular Bullish Divergence

No one trusted me when i told i found a reversal. I am still bullish. the reason to be bullish is because we have seen  some divergence in TATASTL. we may expect some positive sentiments in market.  

Hear tata stl is making LL, but MACD is making HL. As the divergence is not strong. we need to play with "Caution" 

statuary warning: Go with a Stop Loss. As I have told you "I am not playing for Profit, I am playing for my EGO". profit doesn't matter. you are picking a stock with downtrend. so risk is very high.

Tata Steel: Updated Version

Hello friends a month back I have spotted the reversal and told you that I am “neutral” on buying Tata Steel. There wear many reasons to be neutral. But I have told you that “Tata Steel is in a downtrend, and follow the channel”. Tata Steel doesn’t reach your support and resistance. Thus caused a bit nervous and confused but, I was right saying Tata Steel in downtrend.

Today I am once again back saying I have once again spotted a reversal. This time it’s not “Profit Factor” it’s “EGO Factor”.

This time I am playing Tata Steel with targets of 370/375/380+. SL 340

Note: When you are uncertain in buying any stock “Never Buy”. It not only creates confusion, it leads you in a state of “Panic”, which cause you to make low profit, sometimes loss. I have avoided Tata Steel as was not confident in buying.

Tata steel ka kya haal hey?

It has been over a month I was tracking TATA STEEL and I was successful tracking the down channel. Today I am back to Tata steel, saying I am willing to see a reversal at 350 or so. Tata steel is having a “Potential Resistance” at 440. Imagine if Tata steel manages to fill the gap catch old trend line it is aswm(A nice dream) ;)  … But from last few months steel industries are not good for investment and seems market may recover at next march. Not only Tata most of the steel sector have gone down.

I have an another theory where I feel market may even struggle to reach +3% and tumble down breaking the trend line what I have shown. Parabolic SAR and MACD are quit neutral so I feel quit nerves to come with a clear decision. But RSI is giving a buy single.

It is better to wait and watch when Tata steel reaches 350.