Gold Rush is Back?

Iraq is now a hottest topic to be spoken in Financial Market. Every country now fear the oil risk which will affect the CAD and boost us inflation. It is always seen that when inflation rise, it also boost gold price as most of the investor think gold to be the safe heaven in a economic crisis thus having a positive correlation between crude oil price and gold price

Every nation is looking at the worst case senior of Iraq. As there is no help/aid form Uncle Sam nor any dominant countries interested to involve in the war, thus making Iraq indulge alone on its own.  Britain is proactive rising interest rate suspecting the oil risk and inflation. For any country the worst case scenario can be a rise in underling crude oil price up-to 10-20%. And this can be seen for next 3-6 months.   

Technical Analysis on Gold

Compared to silver, gold haven not shown any bullish indication as such; except an doji formed on last trading day. The previous pattern seen in gold was a descending triangle pattern and thus gave a indication that the gold rush so called is going to end. but the Iraq was gave a new twist and turn in the price pattern. As per now there is high chance that the gold can make a turn around and stay above 28K. Still 31K is a good resistance. This Iraq crisis will have a short term implication on crude as well as old. Few Indian Jewelry are in a bad condition and this rise in gold price will also affect them. 

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Technical Analysis on Request:S&P CNX Nifty

It is been a massive change in Market dynamics after a terrorist organisation i.e ISIS had captured cities of Iraq. We have seen this implication on Capital, Forex and Commodity. There are few important things we have to understand regarding Iraq, that  is the country is a dominant exporter of oil in OPEC countries and an 2nd largest exporter of oil to the world and hold around 10% of world oil reserve.

Crux of the issue

The recent terror unrest caused in Iraq is directly implicating on world crude oil and that is causing a domino effect on all stocks and commodities all over the world. 

Apart this, we have report saying ISIS are targeting major oil refineries and had hit the countries one of the biggest oil refinery  which supply countries quarter of the oil Demand. 

All the above points mentioned are systematic risk and they are unavoidable and cannot be controlled by a individual. If there is a continuous rise in crude price, it will have a  negative effect as the rise in CAD,  falling rupee and high inflation are unhealthy for the Capital Markets/ Nifty. 

Market Bullish Triggers

Apart Monsoon and Budget result are the most expected result which will trigger a rally. 

 Technical View:

We are clearly able to see that RSI had given a bearish signal and MACD had also given a Bearish crossover see fig 1. Yesterday was a bearish candlestick. Till now the direction is not clear and we still need conformation of today's market. If today is bullish then market we will see a small rally probably making a higher high. If today turns to be a bearish day then market will find a support as  given in fig 2. 

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