It is been a
massive change in Market dynamics after a terrorist organisation i.e ISIS had captured cities of
Iraq. We have seen this implication on Capital, Forex and Commodity. There are few important things we have to understand regarding Iraq, that is the country is a dominant exporter of oil in OPEC countries and an 2nd largest exporter of oil
to the world and hold around 10% of world oil reserve.
Crux of the
issue
The recent terror
unrest caused in Iraq is directly implicating on world crude oil and that is
causing a domino effect on all stocks and commodities all over the world.
Apart this, we
have report saying ISIS are targeting major oil refineries and had hit the
countries one of the biggest oil refinery which supply countries quarter of the oil Demand.
All the above
points mentioned are systematic
risk and they are unavoidable and
cannot be controlled by a individual. If there is a continuous rise in
crude price, it will have a negative effect as the rise in CAD, falling rupee and high inflation are unhealthy for the Capital Markets/ Nifty.
Market Bullish
Triggers
Apart Monsoon and
Budget result are the most expected result which will trigger a rally.
Technical View:
We are clearly able to see that RSI had given a bearish signal and MACD had also given a Bearish crossover see fig 1. Yesterday was a bearish candlestick. Till now the direction is not clear and we still need conformation of today's market. If today is bullish then market we will see a small rally probably making a higher high. If today turns to be a bearish day then market will find a support as given in fig 2.
Fig 1
Fig 2
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