Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Renuka Sugars: A view

Renuka Sugars
India is a handsome consumer of sugar nearly 23 million tons annually. Recently WTO’s stand on export subsidy of raw sugar and Indian’s stand on import of sugar had bought Indian sugar companies in demand.  

"There was an import parity but mills were not signing deals, expecting revision in the import duty. At 25 percent duty, imports are not viable," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.  As per times of India.

From last few days we are able to see upside movement and the stock is near to the downtrend line. If there is a breakout the stock might show the reversal and currently MACD have shown a positive crossover. And RSI is showing bullish signs.


If the stock fail to give a positive breakout it have a support at 14.58. currently the stock is near to its low. 

Reliance Capital: A View


After, Modi coming up with new banks license in India all the trader in the stock market are having a keen interest on the stock which is getting the banking license. Among which we have Reliance who is a big player and the chance of getting the permit is very high.

Technical Perspective
The stock is showing the divergence and we can see a falling wedge pattern . On 9th September 2014 the stock had given the positive breakout and the on 10th September 2014 i.e today the stock had shown a Doji. And we can see the can open with a positive note tomorrow. If not; the stock can end up falling to 500 which is the immediate support. And 577 and 670 are the good resistance. The stock has a potential to make a new high.


Additional Observation
The stock is showing negative correlation from last 6 months and we have to see that the patter will continue or the old pattern will repeat


Sunday, June 22, 2014

Gold Rush is Back?

Iraq is now a hottest topic to be spoken in Financial Market. Every country now fear the oil risk which will affect the CAD and boost us inflation. It is always seen that when inflation rise, it also boost gold price as most of the investor think gold to be the safe heaven in a economic crisis thus having a positive correlation between crude oil price and gold price

Every nation is looking at the worst case senior of Iraq. As there is no help/aid form Uncle Sam nor any dominant countries interested to involve in the war, thus making Iraq indulge alone on its own.  Britain is proactive rising interest rate suspecting the oil risk and inflation. For any country the worst case scenario can be a rise in underling crude oil price up-to 10-20%. And this can be seen for next 3-6 months.   

Technical Analysis on Gold
Compared to silver, gold haven not shown any bullish indication as such; except an doji formed on last trading day. The previous pattern seen in gold was a descending triangle pattern and thus gave a indication that the gold rush so called is going to end. but the Iraq was gave a new twist and turn in the price pattern. As per now there is high chance that the gold can make a turn around and stay above 28K. Still 31K is a good resistance. This Iraq crisis will have a short term implication on crude as well as old. Few Indian Jewelry are in a bad condition and this rise in gold price will also affect them. 

Fig1

Fig 2