Market Commentary:12/9/2014

Major Indian Index Nifty and Sensex opened negative and after two failed attempts to stay positive Nifty Slipped -1.16% and Sensex slipped -1.15%. Both the Indices gave conformation of 20DMA negative breakout which happened yesterday. Indian Market ended up its 8 week low.

Today all the major Indices were negative; India VIX was up by 2.36%. The major losers in stock are SSTL, ONGC, Tata Power, Tata Steel and the top gainers are M&M, Dr. Reddy, Sun Pharma and HCL Tech  

Most of all Asian Markets are in negative in which Chinese market fell over 5% creating a major fall since 2009. Meanwhile Brent Crude oil hit its 5 year low at USD 66/Barrel.   

Technical Analyst predicts 100DMA can be the next support for Nifty and Sensex. Indian stock market is likely to consolidate further this week. Traders say weak global cues and rise in current account deficit (CAD) is the major reason for today’s fall.

Weekly analysis of Sensex: 29th April to 3rd March 2013

The market  will  looking sluggish this week the resistance of 19712 will be a major resistance for this week the market is expected to have  18624 as a support at lower side. we are seeing a negative divergence in in Sensex, this may drive to 18624.

 Am I bullish on Sensex?

No, I expect a consolidation. We are seeing a risk building out in Sensex, as per me this week is the week for profits booking. Most of the short term players may book profit this week.

How much consolidation is good for Sensex?

18510-18000 need to be the support below which market is not healthy to grab. If market manages to consolidate below 18000 levels we may see a free fall upto 17500/16900.

A Falling Wedge in Sensex

We have seen market consolidating, these days. The cocktail of negative news have driven market near to 18000 levels. Before it reach 18000 we are seeing falling wedge pattern forming. 

A Falling Wedge

A Divergence Building up 

Simultaneously, we are seeing a Bullish Divergence forming in market. As we are seeing a gap filling have started up in Sensex. We may see a reversal @18000 level after filling up of gap; which will eventually lead to a bullish breakout in Falling wedge.

Important SAR