ITC, How long to correct?

We have seen negative divergence due to which the stock have started its consolidation phase. 

Technical Analysis on IVRCL Ltd

On 3rd December I had had told my opinion on my page Experiments With Stocks, The stocks went up to  +9% and gave a bearish engulfing. the price is currently ruling around 42. I was away from this stocks but a sudden Harami drew my attention.

According to me the stock have a potential to go upto 47. If it show a reversal know. If not the stock have a  support at 39.

DEC12, 2012

Know everyone are fantasied with today’s date but for me today stand as a milestone. Yes, I completed 2 year out in stock market. One thing that I always ask: what I learnt in this year, is there something new? How it might help me? Every days is a new day for me, learning something new different from others.

For many people Technical Analysis might be a piece of cake, they might have learnt by a relative, friend, college or any training program. But, a college guy who specialize himself in marketing. Take a weird step on 12^th dec 2010 saying “I will enter Stock Market”. It might be a easy thing for many people whose parents, relative, friends are into this market and they just need to approaches their respective people. I was one guy who didn’t have any such source but had a determination for learning it. Trust me friends, determination is the only thing that is needed in life. I am not a motivational speaker but it is a myth of life.

How I actually learnt Technical Analysis?

Whenever people find me, they ask me one frequent question. Where you learnt Technical Analysis? You worked in any company? And such question. Today, I will let you my secret. How I learnt Technical Analysis?

It was on 8^th dec I actually decided to enter market. On 12^th dec I sent a request to join a group owned by a lady called Darpana Sharma. The group found to be resourceful. I found some potential guys who worth following. Then I sent them a friend request, added them and for 6 months or so. I just observed them. The way they place there stop-loss, the way they take their decisions, entry point, strategies and levels. I am a student of psychology (Cognitive Psychology), and it was a easy task for me to decode there thought process using reverse engineering. I classified my people into categories

AmitMalhotra-A perfect Strategist

Abhivandan Nagia- A Superhuman

Team Eaibs -Godfather of magical supports and resistance

Dilp Jain- Trading with NEWS

And there are number of people along with these people, I can’t name them all. But do have a great respect to call them my Dronacharya. These people were Brokers, Analysts, traders etc.

Simultaneously I started reading books suggested by CMT(MTA) for their examinations. I felt really easy to read them, I used to read them and look for pattern formation out in market. Till September 2011 I quietly decoded these people. Then to practical’s I started applying what I learnt. I personally felt some difficulty applying what I learnt.

A Journey With ATMA

I was a great fan of MTA. I always used to dig MTA website, then I found Association of Technical Market Analyst which is a Indian chapter of MTA. I was in a huge dilemma to join into ATMA or carry my current psyco- reengineering process. I took an initiative to get into ATMA. I majorly used to explore MTA’s knowledge base during my initial days. But today association have its own library with number of books, website, and podcast for members. As I have told you I was having problem applying what I read. Because applying knowledge is different than what we actually read out in books.

One turning point came when ATMA started to conduct Regional meetings it was a golden opportunity for me to be there every time. The reason why because I was been surrounded with the people who can’t follow what I am speaking, whenever I used to take words like Head & shoulders, Triangles, indicators and all people saw me as if a I am alien. The people who surrounded me were from marketing, they knew brand management, advertising, sales etc. ATMA was the only option. People out in ATMA are really cooperative with open heart for everyone; few are at peak active all the time.

My personal words  

• You make profit/ loss, keep an account.
• Always have control on your emotions, never give a chance for your emotions
•  Keep your ego at bay
•  Love what you do, stock market is not mandatory for all
• Marks and degrees are bullshit. Experience  and knowledge are the key factors
•  Don’t hurry making money. 1^st Back-test, at least work on knowledge aspect remember Abraham"If I had six hours to chop down a tree, I'd spend the first four hours sharpening the axe".
• Determination and confidence are 2 phase of same coin.

Ashok Leyland an Analysis

On August 26th I identified a Falling wedge pattern. My analysis is currently giving a profit of +35%. Today I am willing to exit from Ashok Leyland

Reason: A triple top formation, A triangle formation
Strategy: Sell if trend line get violated, add on if we see a positive breakout

Article1: Click here
Article2: Click Hear

Rel cap

Good Morning,
                        Rel cap is showing a bullish divergence along with a breakout. The stock is also about to make a Bullish crossover on MACD.

Have a nice day :)

Ajanta Pharma, A look

Analysis on Apollo Tyres

Apollo Tyres is making a falling wedge pattern along with a bullish divergence forming, from a long days.  Still we haven’t seen any reversal candle forming; I expect 77rs will be a good support for this stocks. 89(Neckline of H&S) can cause some upside hurdle. The stock is looking good, the stock have a potential to move at least 12% within 3-4 months

Falling wedge pattern

A Bullish Divergence

SAR

An analysis on Pantaloon Re

The key things that are attractive for me are as follows:

• MACD cross-over
• Divergence in RSI
• Breakout in price level

Conclusion:  If we see this stock crossing 196 we can see this stock heading towards 226 which will yield around  12% to 15% profit.

Common Misunderstanding of Stock Market

It’s over a year that I have been writing in this blog. I came across many people with many “FAQ”. I have been always writing articles on Technical Analysis. But this time I’m willing to share something regarding “common misunderstanding” that people are having regarding markets.

Stock market is an illusion, everyone enters will end-up in loss

It doesn’t mean that if you have made loss, then everyone will make loss. There are 100 reasons for going wrong out in market. Analysis sometime fail, but you need to have a backup plan. If your stops trigger you have look for things like what went wrong, which is the next support, dose it worth bottom fishing the stock? And so on. Let me take a small example assume that you are out to market to buy a soap/bread/biscuit or any other item such. What you will do? Hope you go out for a retail shop and buy. Isn’t it? What if you don’t get? Easy go to another shop. For this we always use a world “don’t marry your stocks”

The reason is every stock has a cycle, a phase and a trend. Everyone have to understand it then go for an investment you know you can’t sail against wind so you have to go according to the winds of market. It doesn’t mean we have to buy a stock at a high and wait for the stock to go high. This is something what most of the “Breakout traders” do. Breakout traders are professional traders they understand the breakout more than a common man.  See every breakout aren’t bullish, some are fake and the great way to understand it to check volumes during breakouts.

I see TV and made Profit/Loss

 I am a student I don’t want to fall into any controversy. Let me communicate what Larry Berman and other such traders and analyst say “SWITCH OFF THAT TV VOLUME AND TRADE” few even go to an extent saying switch off your TV. Recently I had a chance to sit a wonderful seminar held in Bangalore, speaker as Vishal Malkan . Do you know what he told? He told “I never see TV” this isn’t weird I have many people saying this even I do the same thing.  I never say PM/President rule this world I say Media rule this world with psychological gimmicks, mind control and NLP.

I am a psychology guy hold a special interest in cognitive psychology and neuro linguists, I am not matured to speak things but can only say “ It’s your money, don’t make someone to take your investment decisions”. If you take their advice don’t blame them. If you get poor marks in an exam you can’t blame your pen, isn’t it?

I want to invest so and so, what will be the return after so many years

 Believe me even god find difficult to answer it. There are few concept involved like range, current price, policy, economics etc. many media say Sensex will touch 20k/30k etc but there is some “T&C*”. The best way to do money is to buy at a low and sell at high. It is very hard to specify time.

How can I become a very good trader?

 Everyone wants to be a Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. I have seen people who are trading for show-offs. When people ask this question I normally question them asking. What you do for leaving? Many answer mobile shop, owner of petrol pump, jewellery shop, hardware shop etc . Time, emotions, analysis and capital are some key pillars of trading. And trading is a different game. Everyone can play but there are few who are good at it, like Sachin in cricket.

I am not a trader but would like to call myself an analyst. I don’t spend 24*7 out seeing market. Yet I made around 12% to 51% profit out of 10 stocks in September. You can be a investor can do handsome money.

Do you know in ancient time there used to be a percentage of farmers, a percentage of carpenters, a percentage of blacksmith etc etc. every city was balanced that time son of a carpenter will be  a carpenter.  If your family /your business is doing well. Then, why you need trading? Investment is smartly a good decision compared to trading.

“Hope this article bring some change, in you”

ALL THE BEST

Technical Analysis on request: MIC

This stock showed a bullish pattern, a pattern called “Falling Wedge”. As there is a low volume and lack of interest we have seen this stock not performing well at the current level.

Risk involved in this stock: I see a risk in this stock, the stock is currently sliding down through the trend line. Technically the stock isn’t looking strong as per know. So, I recommend Bottom Fishing for this stock.

Analysis on Biocon

I need to be back by 8^th October. But there was some delay in my college admission due to which I was not able to keep on updating markets. I had a constant eye over markets movement and everything went on as per my calculation. September was a good time. Most of my stock gave a 12-50% return and it was pretty good compared to last time (Nov2011) which gave 12& 35% return from 2 stocks.

It’s over a couple of days that Biocon is looking potentially good and the reason are as follows:

• Candle-Stick Analysis: As per know we are not seeing any bullish stick forming but from last 2 days there is a positive action from market side.
• Indicators: Both the indicators MACD as well as RSI is showing some divergence. Along with it we are seeing MACD very near to 0 line. And I personally feel that it may show some bounce.

• Moving Average:

1. 7DMA-Bearish
2. 20DMA-Bearish
3. 50DMA-Bullish
4. 100DMA-Bullish
5. 200DMA-Bullish

Crossovers: we have seen Golden Crossover along with that we are about to see a crossover of 100&200DMA. Most of all MA are bullish except 7&20DMA which  can be ruled out.

• Trend line Analysis:

• SAR:

Conclusion: The stock is has shown a good support for 50DMA. Indicators like MACD and RSI are showing some bullish divergence. MACD is very near to its zero level and I expect some bounce. if we witness a reversal, the swing that we see will be not much more that 16%.  If the stock continue to fall  257 will stand as a good support, if not 243.

Strategy: Can take a risk to grab with a good stop-loss  

H&S Pattern in Axis Bank

Analysis on PVR Ltd

PVR Ltd is a technically sound company. It is on a bullish trend since June 2011. In spite markets ups and lows the stock had performed well with respect to market.

 The reasons are as follows:

•              Candle-Stick Pattern: we have seen a Morning Star on last Friday.
•       Indicators & Divergence: MACD is about to give a Bullish Cross-over. Along with that we are seeing a Bullish divergence. And RSI is neutral.

•       Moving Averages: All the moving averages are giving a clean way for this stock to sore high. We have seen a golden crossover in September 2011.

•        SAR: we have seen a recent resistance turning as a support @188. The next resistance is at 203 and so on.
•      Chart Pattern: From July 2012 we have been seeing this stock making a Bump and Run Continuation. According to me we are expected to see a 2^nd Bump and Run Continuation.

·         Conclusion: This stock was bullish for a year and it is showing a continuation. The stock is on a bullish run will continue not more that 3-6 months. The stock is at high and expected to make a higher high.

Technical view on ABB Ltd

It is a long time that I left ABB Ltd, I thought it is not having any upside potential. The stock is near to its high and I was looking for a better pattern to form in this stock. During a recent analysis I found some positive potential things which can kick this stock high, and they are as follows:

• Candle-Stick Pattern: On Friday, we witnessed a  engulfing pattern in this stock.

• Indicator&Divergence: The stock price has been making a LH and we are seeing RSI making HH along with that we have seen RSI being sentimental to 30&70% buy and sell levels. Which is an indication that the stock may fall in further days. On other hand we are about to see a MACD zero-line crossover. If we see this happening we may find this stock on bullish side.

• Trend-line and SAR: The stock is having a resistance around 767/823/873 and the stock is having a recent support between 700-710. The trend-line is also posing a hurdle for this stock.

• Fibonacci levels:

• Conclusion: if we seen this stock crossing above 770 we can surly make a profit of 10-12% with a span of 2-3 months. A caution is recommended as this stock is sentimental with RSI's 30&70% levels. we have recently seen this stock above 70%. Have an eye on divergence

ACC Ltd

Since June we have seen ACC Ltd souring high giving a profit around 23%. It is very recent that I saw some unhealthy pattern forming in ACC Ltd as follows

1.      Rising wedge: we are seeing a rising wedge pattern forming in ACC Ltd. We saw a bearish breakout in this stock on August. After which we saw a bounce back at 1290. As per know the stock is in a bearish condition.

2.      Divergence: In spite the stock is making a HH, but MACD as well as RSI is not able to form HH and we are seeing a HL thus forming a divergence in this stock.

Some important supports

Conclusion: The stock is not looking bullish, we may see a consolidation within few days

BOC(I) a Potential Short

BUY/SHORT/SELL-AXIS BANK?

Axis Bank can be a potentially Bullish, we are seeing a bullish divergence in it. it is not as good as ICICI Bank

Breakout in Falling Wedge, Ashok Leyland

It’s a couple of weeks ago I had told you regarding a Falling wedge pattern forming on Ashok Leyland along with divergence. We had seen a Breakout yesterday, I expect a rally.   

The Resistance are as follow

Previous article on Ashok Leyland: Click Hear

Praj Industries, Bulls Waiting

It’s a long downtrend for Praj Industries one of Rakesh jhunjhunwala stock. After a long fall I just spotted a Divergence in this stock along with few attractive things, RSI is below 30 and MACD is about to make a Positive crossover. Market sentiments on this stock isn’t so good but worth caching it above 45 for a long or medium term

 For me 50/57/67 look good resistance for the stock

Tilaknagar Industries, Technically Strong

We have recently seeing a Regular Bullish Divergence in RSI along with it we are seeing a Bullish Crossover in MACD. For Tilaknagar Industries there is a good resistance at 46, so we can take it as a conformation and start hunting for this stock.

The Targets for the stock are as follows

Breakout in Indicators

We always know that Indicator is the reflection of a price. Whenever we see a Bullish/Bearish Breakout in price we see a reflection on indicators. Yes, we are seeing 2 H&S Pattern here in this stock. But I think the stock may not be able to cross neckline. We have seen a Negative Breakout in RSI.

MY Theory:

The stock is going to consolidate around  770 later it may head to break that Neckline. “BUT NOT KNOW” 

Three reason, why Tata Steel look attractive?

Reason one: Recently we have seen Tata Stl making a bullish engulfing

Reason two: RSI is giving a buy signal

Reason three: Divergence in both RSI and MACD making this stock an attractive one.

Ashok Leyland, a falling wedge

After witnessing Ashok making some lows, I smell some bullishness in this stock. It is recent; I have spotted a falling wedge formation along with a divergence forming. According to me, Ashok Leyland is going to make a new low then will get ready to shoot high.

We have recently seen MACD making a negative crossover and RSI giving a buy signal.

Conclusion:  wait till pattern complete, look for divergence.  

Eye on Tata Moters

After Tata Motors tumbling down we saw it taking a reversal and know currently ruling between 203-247.  It is a one of the important day for Tata Motors, today. If Tata Motors is able to cross 247 we may see the stock heading towards 274. 

Technical View: Mastek Ltd

The company is bullish and look attractive. The company had recently broken one of its resistance and heading high. My 1^st target is around 190 and 2^nd at 210.  The company is expected to give a profit of +20%

Technical View: Syndicate Bank

Syndicate Bank is seeing attractive compared to stock like SBI. Technically, MACD is about to make a positive crossover. The resistance at 98 is causing little hiccup rest. Secondly, we have seen little violation in trend line.  

If syndicate bank is a bet know, it may help fetching some at least 9% profit.

Technical View: Bharathi Airtel

Bharathi Airtel looking too week is in a down trend, but on a keen observation I found every time it make a new low we saw a consistence throw back giving a profit of 12-23%.

Smart traders can make profit “Holding a falling knife”

*T&C APPLY 

TA on Request: Jain Irrigation

Jain irrigation according to me doesn’t look profitable and lack with upside potential. When I look over technical it is not bad until and unless it is below 76, if Jain irrigation manage to come below 76 it is going to break the latest bullish trend.

Jain irrigation is having a support at around 74-75. If it fails to manage that support. It is going to follow the downtrend as shown.

  

Additional Information:

Jain Irrigations Ltd: JPMorgan has an underweight on Jain Irrigation and they have slashed the target to Rs 65 from Rs 105. The revenue flow from their micro irrigation business has started to shrink and the balance sheet matrix has not shown any improvement. As a result the debt on the books remains high.

Source: Economic Times 

TA on Request: RIL

The reason why I asked you not to sell Ril?

According to me you made a quick hurry. Reliance had just crossed one of its resistance. I had told you it is having potential to yield you minimum of 7% profit. Today reliance traded with a pretty good volume

Technical View: Rcom

After looking around 10 trading days I think Rcom has finally found its support. Yesterday, we witnessed a MACD crossover. According to me RCOM is looking a “Technically best buy” at these levels.