DEC12, 2012

Know everyone are fantasied with today’s date but for me today stand as a milestone. Yes, I completed 2 year out in stock market. One thing that I always ask: what I learnt in this year, is there something new? How it might help me? Every days is a new day for me, learning something new different from others.

For many people Technical Analysis might be a piece of cake, they might have learnt by a relative, friend, college or any training program. But, a college guy who specialize himself in marketing. Take a weird step on 12^th dec 2010 saying “I will enter Stock Market”. It might be a easy thing for many people whose parents, relative, friends are into this market and they just need to approaches their respective people. I was one guy who didn’t have any such source but had a determination for learning it. Trust me friends, determination is the only thing that is needed in life. I am not a motivational speaker but it is a myth of life.

How I actually learnt Technical Analysis?

Whenever people find me, they ask me one frequent question. Where you learnt Technical Analysis? You worked in any company? And such question. Today, I will let you my secret. How I learnt Technical Analysis?

It was on 8^th dec I actually decided to enter market. On 12^th dec I sent a request to join a group owned by a lady called Darpana Sharma. The group found to be resourceful. I found some potential guys who worth following. Then I sent them a friend request, added them and for 6 months or so. I just observed them. The way they place there stop-loss, the way they take their decisions, entry point, strategies and levels. I am a student of psychology (Cognitive Psychology), and it was a easy task for me to decode there thought process using reverse engineering. I classified my people into categories

AmitMalhotra-A perfect Strategist

Abhivandan Nagia- A Superhuman

Team Eaibs -Godfather of magical supports and resistance

Dilp Jain- Trading with NEWS

And there are number of people along with these people, I can’t name them all. But do have a great respect to call them my Dronacharya. These people were Brokers, Analysts, traders etc.

Simultaneously I started reading books suggested by CMT(MTA) for their examinations. I felt really easy to read them, I used to read them and look for pattern formation out in market. Till September 2011 I quietly decoded these people. Then to practical’s I started applying what I learnt. I personally felt some difficulty applying what I learnt.

A Journey With ATMA

I was a great fan of MTA. I always used to dig MTA website, then I found Association of Technical Market Analyst which is a Indian chapter of MTA. I was in a huge dilemma to join into ATMA or carry my current psyco- reengineering process. I took an initiative to get into ATMA. I majorly used to explore MTA’s knowledge base during my initial days. But today association have its own library with number of books, website, and podcast for members. As I have told you I was having problem applying what I read. Because applying knowledge is different than what we actually read out in books.

One turning point came when ATMA started to conduct Regional meetings it was a golden opportunity for me to be there every time. The reason why because I was been surrounded with the people who can’t follow what I am speaking, whenever I used to take words like Head & shoulders, Triangles, indicators and all people saw me as if a I am alien. The people who surrounded me were from marketing, they knew brand management, advertising, sales etc. ATMA was the only option. People out in ATMA are really cooperative with open heart for everyone; few are at peak active all the time.

My personal words  

• You make profit/ loss, keep an account.
• Always have control on your emotions, never give a chance for your emotions
•  Keep your ego at bay
•  Love what you do, stock market is not mandatory for all
• Marks and degrees are bullshit. Experience  and knowledge are the key factors
•  Don’t hurry making money. 1^st Back-test, at least work on knowledge aspect remember Abraham"If I had six hours to chop down a tree, I'd spend the first four hours sharpening the axe".
• Determination and confidence are 2 phase of same coin.

Ashok Leyland an Analysis

On August 26th I identified a Falling wedge pattern. My analysis is currently giving a profit of +35%. Today I am willing to exit from Ashok Leyland

Reason: A triple top formation, A triangle formation
Strategy: Sell if trend line get violated, add on if we see a positive breakout

Article1: Click here
Article2: Click Hear

Rel cap

Good Morning,
                        Rel cap is showing a bullish divergence along with a breakout. The stock is also about to make a Bullish crossover on MACD.

Have a nice day :)

Ajanta Pharma, A look

Analysis on Apollo Tyres

Apollo Tyres is making a falling wedge pattern along with a bullish divergence forming, from a long days.  Still we haven’t seen any reversal candle forming; I expect 77rs will be a good support for this stocks. 89(Neckline of H&S) can cause some upside hurdle. The stock is looking good, the stock have a potential to move at least 12% within 3-4 months

Falling wedge pattern

A Bullish Divergence

SAR

An analysis on Pantaloon Re

The key things that are attractive for me are as follows:

• MACD cross-over
• Divergence in RSI
• Breakout in price level

Conclusion:  If we see this stock crossing 196 we can see this stock heading towards 226 which will yield around  12% to 15% profit.

Common Misunderstanding of Stock Market

It’s over a year that I have been writing in this blog. I came across many people with many “FAQ”. I have been always writing articles on Technical Analysis. But this time I’m willing to share something regarding “common misunderstanding” that people are having regarding markets.

Stock market is an illusion, everyone enters will end-up in loss

It doesn’t mean that if you have made loss, then everyone will make loss. There are 100 reasons for going wrong out in market. Analysis sometime fail, but you need to have a backup plan. If your stops trigger you have look for things like what went wrong, which is the next support, dose it worth bottom fishing the stock? And so on. Let me take a small example assume that you are out to market to buy a soap/bread/biscuit or any other item such. What you will do? Hope you go out for a retail shop and buy. Isn’t it? What if you don’t get? Easy go to another shop. For this we always use a world “don’t marry your stocks”

The reason is every stock has a cycle, a phase and a trend. Everyone have to understand it then go for an investment you know you can’t sail against wind so you have to go according to the winds of market. It doesn’t mean we have to buy a stock at a high and wait for the stock to go high. This is something what most of the “Breakout traders” do. Breakout traders are professional traders they understand the breakout more than a common man.  See every breakout aren’t bullish, some are fake and the great way to understand it to check volumes during breakouts.

I see TV and made Profit/Loss

 I am a student I don’t want to fall into any controversy. Let me communicate what Larry Berman and other such traders and analyst say “SWITCH OFF THAT TV VOLUME AND TRADE” few even go to an extent saying switch off your TV. Recently I had a chance to sit a wonderful seminar held in Bangalore, speaker as Vishal Malkan . Do you know what he told? He told “I never see TV” this isn’t weird I have many people saying this even I do the same thing.  I never say PM/President rule this world I say Media rule this world with psychological gimmicks, mind control and NLP.

I am a psychology guy hold a special interest in cognitive psychology and neuro linguists, I am not matured to speak things but can only say “ It’s your money, don’t make someone to take your investment decisions”. If you take their advice don’t blame them. If you get poor marks in an exam you can’t blame your pen, isn’t it?

I want to invest so and so, what will be the return after so many years

 Believe me even god find difficult to answer it. There are few concept involved like range, current price, policy, economics etc. many media say Sensex will touch 20k/30k etc but there is some “T&C*”. The best way to do money is to buy at a low and sell at high. It is very hard to specify time.

How can I become a very good trader?

 Everyone wants to be a Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. I have seen people who are trading for show-offs. When people ask this question I normally question them asking. What you do for leaving? Many answer mobile shop, owner of petrol pump, jewellery shop, hardware shop etc . Time, emotions, analysis and capital are some key pillars of trading. And trading is a different game. Everyone can play but there are few who are good at it, like Sachin in cricket.

I am not a trader but would like to call myself an analyst. I don’t spend 24*7 out seeing market. Yet I made around 12% to 51% profit out of 10 stocks in September. You can be a investor can do handsome money.

Do you know in ancient time there used to be a percentage of farmers, a percentage of carpenters, a percentage of blacksmith etc etc. every city was balanced that time son of a carpenter will be  a carpenter.  If your family /your business is doing well. Then, why you need trading? Investment is smartly a good decision compared to trading.

“Hope this article bring some change, in you”

ALL THE BEST