Analysis on Apollo Tyres

Apollo Tyres is making a falling wedge pattern along with a bullish divergence forming, from a long days.  Still we haven’t seen any reversal candle forming; I expect 77rs will be a good support for this stocks. 89(Neckline of H&S) can cause some upside hurdle. The stock is looking good, the stock have a potential to move at least 12% within 3-4 months

Falling wedge pattern

A Bullish Divergence

SAR

An analysis on Pantaloon Re

The key things that are attractive for me are as follows:

• MACD cross-over
• Divergence in RSI
• Breakout in price level

Conclusion:  If we see this stock crossing 196 we can see this stock heading towards 226 which will yield around  12% to 15% profit.

Common Misunderstanding of Stock Market

It’s over a year that I have been writing in this blog. I came across many people with many “FAQ”. I have been always writing articles on Technical Analysis. But this time I’m willing to share something regarding “common misunderstanding” that people are having regarding markets.

Stock market is an illusion, everyone enters will end-up in loss

It doesn’t mean that if you have made loss, then everyone will make loss. There are 100 reasons for going wrong out in market. Analysis sometime fail, but you need to have a backup plan. If your stops trigger you have look for things like what went wrong, which is the next support, dose it worth bottom fishing the stock? And so on. Let me take a small example assume that you are out to market to buy a soap/bread/biscuit or any other item such. What you will do? Hope you go out for a retail shop and buy. Isn’t it? What if you don’t get? Easy go to another shop. For this we always use a world “don’t marry your stocks”

The reason is every stock has a cycle, a phase and a trend. Everyone have to understand it then go for an investment you know you can’t sail against wind so you have to go according to the winds of market. It doesn’t mean we have to buy a stock at a high and wait for the stock to go high. This is something what most of the “Breakout traders” do. Breakout traders are professional traders they understand the breakout more than a common man.  See every breakout aren’t bullish, some are fake and the great way to understand it to check volumes during breakouts.

I see TV and made Profit/Loss

 I am a student I don’t want to fall into any controversy. Let me communicate what Larry Berman and other such traders and analyst say “SWITCH OFF THAT TV VOLUME AND TRADE” few even go to an extent saying switch off your TV. Recently I had a chance to sit a wonderful seminar held in Bangalore, speaker as Vishal Malkan . Do you know what he told? He told “I never see TV” this isn’t weird I have many people saying this even I do the same thing.  I never say PM/President rule this world I say Media rule this world with psychological gimmicks, mind control and NLP.

I am a psychology guy hold a special interest in cognitive psychology and neuro linguists, I am not matured to speak things but can only say “ It’s your money, don’t make someone to take your investment decisions”. If you take their advice don’t blame them. If you get poor marks in an exam you can’t blame your pen, isn’t it?

I want to invest so and so, what will be the return after so many years

 Believe me even god find difficult to answer it. There are few concept involved like range, current price, policy, economics etc. many media say Sensex will touch 20k/30k etc but there is some “T&C*”. The best way to do money is to buy at a low and sell at high. It is very hard to specify time.

How can I become a very good trader?

 Everyone wants to be a Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. I have seen people who are trading for show-offs. When people ask this question I normally question them asking. What you do for leaving? Many answer mobile shop, owner of petrol pump, jewellery shop, hardware shop etc . Time, emotions, analysis and capital are some key pillars of trading. And trading is a different game. Everyone can play but there are few who are good at it, like Sachin in cricket.

I am not a trader but would like to call myself an analyst. I don’t spend 24*7 out seeing market. Yet I made around 12% to 51% profit out of 10 stocks in September. You can be a investor can do handsome money.

Do you know in ancient time there used to be a percentage of farmers, a percentage of carpenters, a percentage of blacksmith etc etc. every city was balanced that time son of a carpenter will be  a carpenter.  If your family /your business is doing well. Then, why you need trading? Investment is smartly a good decision compared to trading.

“Hope this article bring some change, in you”

ALL THE BEST

Technical Analysis on request: MIC

This stock showed a bullish pattern, a pattern called “Falling Wedge”. As there is a low volume and lack of interest we have seen this stock not performing well at the current level.

Risk involved in this stock: I see a risk in this stock, the stock is currently sliding down through the trend line. Technically the stock isn’t looking strong as per know. So, I recommend Bottom Fishing for this stock.

Analysis on Biocon

I need to be back by 8^th October. But there was some delay in my college admission due to which I was not able to keep on updating markets. I had a constant eye over markets movement and everything went on as per my calculation. September was a good time. Most of my stock gave a 12-50% return and it was pretty good compared to last time (Nov2011) which gave 12& 35% return from 2 stocks.

It’s over a couple of days that Biocon is looking potentially good and the reason are as follows:

• Candle-Stick Analysis: As per know we are not seeing any bullish stick forming but from last 2 days there is a positive action from market side.
• Indicators: Both the indicators MACD as well as RSI is showing some divergence. Along with it we are seeing MACD very near to 0 line. And I personally feel that it may show some bounce.

• Moving Average:

1. 7DMA-Bearish
2. 20DMA-Bearish
3. 50DMA-Bullish
4. 100DMA-Bullish
5. 200DMA-Bullish

Crossovers: we have seen Golden Crossover along with that we are about to see a crossover of 100&200DMA. Most of all MA are bullish except 7&20DMA which  can be ruled out.

• Trend line Analysis:

• SAR:

Conclusion: The stock is has shown a good support for 50DMA. Indicators like MACD and RSI are showing some bullish divergence. MACD is very near to its zero level and I expect some bounce. if we witness a reversal, the swing that we see will be not much more that 16%.  If the stock continue to fall  257 will stand as a good support, if not 243.

Strategy: Can take a risk to grab with a good stop-loss  

H&S Pattern in Axis Bank

Analysis on PVR Ltd

PVR Ltd is a technically sound company. It is on a bullish trend since June 2011. In spite markets ups and lows the stock had performed well with respect to market.

 The reasons are as follows:

•              Candle-Stick Pattern: we have seen a Morning Star on last Friday.
•       Indicators & Divergence: MACD is about to give a Bullish Cross-over. Along with that we are seeing a Bullish divergence. And RSI is neutral.

•       Moving Averages: All the moving averages are giving a clean way for this stock to sore high. We have seen a golden crossover in September 2011.

•        SAR: we have seen a recent resistance turning as a support @188. The next resistance is at 203 and so on.
•      Chart Pattern: From July 2012 we have been seeing this stock making a Bump and Run Continuation. According to me we are expected to see a 2^nd Bump and Run Continuation.

·         Conclusion: This stock was bullish for a year and it is showing a continuation. The stock is on a bullish run will continue not more that 3-6 months. The stock is at high and expected to make a higher high.